Afghanistan, The Taliban, and the Weakening of US Imperialism
Say what you want about the Taliban, but none can deny that they are a remarkably resilient bunch. Formed in 1994, most of its leaders were those who had previously fought against the USSR in the Soviet-Afghan War of the 80s. In a way, if you consider the Taliban the successor movement of the Afghan Mujahideen, they are one of few groups who have fought both of the Cold War superpowers. But more than that, both times they survived. It says a lot about the power of the US military machine that even with the largest army in the world it could not beat the Taliban.
The Taliban came to power in much of Afghanistan in the latter half of the 90s, and their rule was characterised by an intense brutality based on a particularly strict interpretation of Sharia Law. Particularly harsh laws were brought in for women, who were forbidden from working or from even receiving an education. Men, meanwhile, were forbidden from cutting their hair or beards. Non-Sunni Muslims also received tough treatment, including Shiites, and prayers were made mandatory with those refusing facing arrest. Punishments for breaking these laws were harsh, and included flogging or even execution.
The US and it’s allies launched their invasion of Afghanistan almost twenty years ago, with the goal of capturing Osama Bin Laden, who was being hosted by the Taliban regime. As in Iraq, initially the US were very successful, and the last Taliban stronghold fell after only a month of warfare. The Taliban hadn’t gone away though, and, with the alleged help of the Pakistani army, many fighters escaped from Afghanistan. Others laid low within Afghanistan, waiting on their chance to rise again. By 2003 the Taliban had experienced somewhat of a resurgence, and for the next 18 years the war would alternate between Taliban gains and US victories, but the Americans were never able to deal a death blow to the Taliban.
By now it is clear that the war in Afghanistan was completely unwinnable for the US and its allies. The Afghan people were always going to get tired of a foreign occupation force, particularly one which didn’t seem too worried about civilian casualties and which showed no intention of moving for two whole decades. This is all despite the fact that the Taliban weren’t exactly the most loved regime in history. Not only was the war unwinnable, but the powers that be knew this for sure at least as early as 2009, when a report estimated that 500,000 troops would be required to defeat the Taliban insurgency, a number which would never be acceptable to US politicians, or, indeed the populace. This unwinnable war is a symptom of the crumbling US Empire, as America begins to realise that it is no longer possible to enforce its will throughout the globe.
Noam Chomsky has noted that the US has been in decline as early as the end of the Second World War and a look at the history books does little to dispel this notion. Consider the fact that the last time America even approached conditions that could be considered victory in a land war was in Korea, a war which ended in 1953. Since then there has been outright failure in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. Even more limited interventions have had little success, such as in Syria, where Bashar Al-Assad maintained control despite the best efforts of the US. The recent victory of the Taliban is oddly reminiscent of the US retreat from Vietnam, where civilians scrambled to get out of the country on military planes. Fast forward to 2021 and almost the exact same scene is playing out in Kabul airport; the more things change, the more they stay the same.
For over seventy years, the US has maintained global hegemony through the use of soft and hard power. The victory of the Taliban, a group which the US has attempted to eradicate for twenty years, is a sign that this hegemony is beginning to crumble. If America cannot deal with an insurgency in Afghanistan, how then can they deal with legitimately powerful entities like Russia and Iran? Worse still, how can this power be wielded to keep check on China? The simple answer is that it can’t. Another US war would be the death knell of America on the global stage, as it would inevitably play out disastrously. US citizens would of course oppose such a war in huge numbers, limiting the possibility of military action, but so too would other countries and potential allies. Such a war would tarnish the view of the US internationally, and while it may seem like in the early 2000s America’s ability to effectively intervene was in question, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have made things much worse.
The American century is coming to an end, and all the nation is displaying all the traits of a failing empire. Often an empire will engage in ill-advised military endeavours as their power begins to wane, think of the Soviets invading Afghanistan or the French desperately clinging to control of Vietnam in the 40s and 50s. These endeavours inevitably end in disaster and it seems that for the US things are no different. On top of the loss of power projection on a geopolitical scale, the US is facing deep internal problems and is crumbling from within. Economic problems have persisted since the Great Recession and the “recovery”, such as it was, never really reached most Americans. In an increasingly polarised nation, many have now openly lost faith in the democratic system, with a large section of Trump’s support base believing that Joe Biden’s victory was fraudulent and openly rebelling in the Capitol. Expect to see more politicians like Trump in the coming years and decades, as the US fall from power becomes uglier, nationalists and the far right will resort to these figures to try to remedy the situation, and more and more people will lose faith in neoliberals like Biden, the Clintons and Bush.
